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Will the Trump Administration Move Toward a Weaker Dollar? Possibility of Using the General Account for Bond Buybacks

The market is reeling from the impact of Treasury Secretary Bessent’s plan to write off long-term government bond purchases.
While the euro has risen against the dollar to some extent, the gains in gold and cryptocurrencies have been staggering.
Regarding cryptocurrencies, President Trump has stated that the U.S. is considering purchasing them as part of its foreign exchange reserves, but he is likely buying a substantial amount of cryptocurrency personally while prices are low.

U.S. long-term interest rates fell on reports that the General Account budget might be used for bond buybacks, and the dollar-yen exchange rate also softened, dropping from around 159.20 yen to below 159.00 yen.
According to two senior U.S. Treasury officials, there is a possibility of utilizing the General Account (TGA), which has a balance of nearly $1 trillion; in that case, there would be no need to issue additional short-term Treasury bills for the time being.

Mr. Bessent’s purchase of long-term bonds will inevitably shorten the maturity of U.S. funding.
While funding primarily through short-term debt may be viewed unfavorably—evoking images of a “pay-as-you-go” operation—the U.S. will likely shift toward raising funds through low-interest-rate short-term debt to avoid borrowing at high long-term rates.

This is where Federal Reserve Chair Wash plays a crucial role.
If he raises the policy interest rate, the U.S. will face difficulties in raising funds.
There are strong expectations that he will pursue monetary easing.

And he will likely proceed with interest rate cuts. There is also the possibility that a market scenario in which the dollar collapses significantly is approaching.
Currently, even if stopgap measures involve temporarily tapping the general fund, the shortfall will eventually have to be replenished through tax collection or the issuance of government bonds; therefore, the market is likely to return to normal sooner or later.

This week will feature an announcement by Mr. Bessent regarding economic sanctions against Iran, as well as the Jackson Hole Symposium.
Particular attention will be focused on Fed Chair Wash’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium; however, market turmoil has already caused U.S. long-term interest rates to rise.
The key question will be whether his remarks will be sufficient to calm those markets.