The situation in Iran remains fluid, but contrary to the aggressive rhetoric of U.S. President Trump, who launched the attack, Iran—which has dragged the conflict into a war of attrition—is gaining the upper hand.
President Trump’s statements have flip-flopped almost daily, and with each remark, the markets have been tossed about by wild swings; however,
whether out of habit or exasperation, the markets have become numb, and their sense of direction has grown dull.
The future direction of the market will likely depend on major shifts in the broader Iranian situation or on fundamentals.

While the first half of this week is expected to start relatively calmly, the second half will see a concentration of major events that will determine the trend of the dollar market.
The biggest focus is the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), which will be released on Friday.
This is the most critical inflation data directly influencing the Fed’s future pace of rate cuts and could serve as a catalyst to create a decisive trend in the dollar market.

Late Wednesday night, the minutes from the March FOMC meeting will be released.
As these minutes reveal the detailed discussions among Fed officials regarding interest rate projections, they could significantly shift market positions ahead of Friday’s CPI release.

On Thursday, initial jobless claims will also be released.
This is a real-time indicator that measures the tightness of the labor market on a weekly basis, and it warrants close attention as a factor for final position adjustments ahead of the next day’s CPI release.