With the U.K. market closed today, overseas markets are expected to be quiet; however, given the extremely hawkish tone of Federal Reserve Chair Warsh’s speech at Jackson Hole, markets may move on the assumption of a September rate hike.
The USD/JPY pair dipped slightly due to rising crude oil prices stemming from renewed hostilities between the U.S. and Iran, but the strategy of buying on dips is likely to continue.

Japan’s Ministry of Finance announced that it conducted yen-buying, dollar-selling interventions totaling 15.3993 trillion yen in July and August.
Since it intervened to the tune of 11.7349 trillion yen in April and May, this brings the total intervention amount for the year to 27.1342 trillion yen.

While this is, of course, a record high, it cannot be said that this has completely reversed the trend in the USD/JPY pair.
Since the dollar-yen pair has not changed its behavior despite interventions on a larger scale than expected, doubts have arisen that the yen may weaken further.

While the trade deficit and the digital balance deficit are often discussed, if even 27 trillion yen in intervention cannot push down the dollar-yen exchange rate, it likely means that households’ 2,300 trillion yen in financial assets have finally begun to move.
If 2,000 trillion yen starts moving, even 200 trillion yen in foreign exchange reserves would be meaningless. The trend cannot be stopped.
The impact is significant, and authorities are likely to be cautious about the next intervention. If there is no immediate intervention, the pair is likely to move toward the 165 yen level.
There’s likely no choice but to steadily raise interest rates.

We should also anticipate yen weakness in cross-yen pairs.
New Zealand is set to raise rates this week.
Australia will also raise rates eventually, so the AUD/JPY pair is expected to remain firm going forward.