The intervention amount for the period from April 28 to May 27, announced last Friday, was reported to be 11.7349 trillion yen.
Since the figure was expected to be around 10 trillion yen, there is no major discrepancy, but this is likely at the upper end of the forecast range.
This is likely to give the impression that intervention has little effect even when large sums are injected.

Finance Minister Katayama and Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara also commented on foreign exchange for the first time in a while.
Finance Minister Katayama stated, “We can take resolute measures if there are speculative movements,” but this feels somewhat off.
In other words, it comes across as an admission that intervention is not possible unless there are speculative movements.

Until now, it was generally believed that intervention could be carried out as much as desired at any time, but this seems to be an acknowledgment that there is no justification for currency intervention during periods of low volatility.
The rate touched 159.65 yen, but naturally, there is strong caution against further intervention beyond that level.
In the end, will the market settle into a slow, steady trend without any major fluctuations?

The USD/JPY range over the weekend was 159.20–159.37. In other words, it moved by only 17 sen. This is impossible to comment on.
The prospect of yen appreciation is gradually becoming a pipe dream.

The situation is similar even in cross pairs like EUR/USD.
Iran launched a limited attack on U.S. military bases, and amid safe-haven dollar buying, EUR/USD fell to 1.1587 and GBP/USD to around 1.3370.
This appears to be Iran’s retaliation for previous limited U.S. strikes, and while the overall path toward peace seems to be maintained, the two sides are engaged in a standoff due to dissatisfaction with the terms of the agreement.

The key issue is how peace talks between the U.S. and Iran will progress. While the market has already adopted progress toward peace as its main scenario, Iran occasionally responds in a manner that contradicts this.
Secretary of State Rubio has acknowledged that drafting the agreement will take time, but it ultimately depends on whether Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei will agree to it.
The U.S. is making unprecedented concessions to Iran, and voices of discontent are being heard from Republican hawks who believe these concessions go too far; reactions within the U.S. and from Israel are also a concern.
If an agreement is not reached despite these concessions, will military action be the next step?

It seems we will continue to search for a path to peace while engaging in repeated sporadic military clashes, though full-scale combat is unlikely.
We can only wait for an opportunity while taking a stroll.