President Trump had declared he would block the Strait of Hormuz, but withdrew the threat at the last minute. Strictly speaking, perhaps it wasn’t a withdrawal so much as a decision to let the matter slide.
Reports of resumed negotiations between the U.S. and Iran had led to a prevailing risk-off reversal, but after Iran rejected the talks and reports emerged of a potential Strait of Hormuz blockade, risk-off sentiment returned.
In response to this series of headlines, crude oil prices, the dollar, and stocks reacted with risk-off sentiment.

The current ceasefire deadline is set for the 21st, so the back-and-forth between the two countries looks set to continue for a while longer.
If headlines emerge that stoke the crisis, it’s safe to go risk-off and buy the dollar.

Regarding the Middle East situation: if Trump issues threats, buy crude oil, buy the dollar, and sell gold.
If TACO makes a move, you can play it safe by selling crude oil, selling the dollar, and buying gold.
Even after London trading hours, buy the dollar if tensions escalate and sell it if they ease.

If you want to trade like an insider, similar to the Trump family,
simply monitor the news during New York trading hours and establish positions in gold, BTC, and crude oil.

As for USD/JPY, there are few catalysts for buying, but Finance Minister Katayama revealed that during his meeting with U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent, they “agreed to thoroughly discuss exchange rates and maintain closer communication than ever before.”
Since such meetings and official statements often avoid public acknowledgments—such as claiming “there was no discussion on exchange rates”—this particular statement indicates that the mindset of Japanese and U.S. officials has shifted from what it was previously.

It’s fine to buy on dips, but expectations for further upside may have cooled somewhat.