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The increasingly uncertain global EV market and where accumulated latent replacement demand is heading

Statistics, policy and industry trends for vehicle markets and production in 2024 in over 80 countries worldwide.

Since 2020, the global automotive industry has suffered from the market downturn caused by the Corona disaster, inventory shortages due to production cuts caused by the shortage of semiconductors, and the effects of the Russian-Ukrainian war.

In 2023, the global automobile market in 87 countries is expected to grow by 7.4% (+6 million units) year-on-year to 86.5 million units. The market recovery is particularly clear in the developed countries of Europe and the USA, partly due to latent demand after the market decline of the past few years.

In the emerging economies, the Chinese market, the world’s largest, will remain flat at around 25 million units, but the expansion of the Indian market and the recovery of the Central and Eastern European markets have supported and maintained growth. On the other hand, when compared to 2019 results, the developed markets are still below the pre-Corona disaster level, down 10% (-5 million units), while the emerging markets have recovered to a slight decline (-500,000 units).

Although the situation differs in each country and region, the developed markets are expected to recover towards the pre-Corona disaster level, while the emerging markets will focus on the creation of new demand and expansion of scale, etc. Expansion to 88.5 million units in 2024, 92 million units in 2025 and 95 million units in 2026 is This is forecast to grow to 88.5 million units in 2024, 92 million in 2025 and 95 million in 2026.

If there are no major changes in global market conditions, global vehicle sales could still exceed the record 2017 result (96.2 million units) in 2027.The key to global market expansion beyond 2024 will be the recovery and growth of emerging Asian, Middle Eastern and Latin American countries.In January 2024, BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) will be joined by Egypt, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

Although there are many unknowns in the cooperation between the countries, including the domestic political environment, situation and background, and the economic situation, the enlarged BRICS account for about 30% of the world’s GDP and more than 40% of the world’s population. In addition to a stronger political voice, there are driving forces and triggers for growth in each country’s market, and the impact on car sales needs to be closely monitored.

This report compiles basic statistics on production, sales, exports and other basic statistics, automobile policies and economic conditions in more than 80 countries around the world, explains the state of the automobile market and production in 2023 by country and reports on future prospects.