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Super Central Bank Week

This week (April 27–May 1) is “Super Central Bank Week,” during which the central banks of Japan and the United States will announce their monetary policy decisions.
Last week saw no major developments in the Middle East, with headlines focusing solely on mutual posturing.

The U.S. likely wants to break the deadlock but lacks a clear path forward, while also wanting to avoid backing down first.
A blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would not be a major blow to the U.S., an oil-producing nation. At the very least, it is better than consuming large quantities of missiles.
However, with midterm elections looming, President Trump cannot afford to let the situation continue as it is.

On the other hand, Iran is suffering a major economic blow from being unable to export crude oil.
In addition, the damage to infrastructure caused by the attacks is a significant setback.

Iran would naturally want to end the conflict quickly and begin reconstruction, but it is reluctant to back down in negotiations.
It is also reported that the Revolutionary Guards are taking a very hardline stance.
Given this, the situation is likely to continue for at least another month.

The key events will be the Bank of Japan’s Monetary Policy Meeting, scheduled for announcement around noon on Tuesday, and the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting, scheduled for announcement in the early hours of Thursday (late Wednesday night).
Since the future interest rate outlooks for Japan and the U.S. are diverging, the USD/JPY exchange rate could experience some of the highest volatility of the year.

In that case, buying the dollar on dips appears to be the safest bet.