The U.S.-China tariff talks have made progress, and a first trade agreement has been reached with the U.K. The next focus is the U.S.-China talks.
The next focus will be on the U.S.-China talks. Up to now, there had not been even a hint of negotiations between the U.S. and China, but at the repeated request of the U.S. side, the talks were held in Switzerland on May 10-11, attended by Treasury Secretary Bessent and Trade Representative Greer from the U.S. side and Vice Premier He Liufeng from China.
If the confrontation eases, it will be a factor in the risk-on market progressing.

The market responded favorably to this report, and the dollar, which had been hovering in the low 142-yen range, rose about 1 yen, and has since been gradually closing lower, mainly in the low 143-yen range.
However, according to Treasury Secretary Bessent, there is no concrete progress in trade negotiations, but rather a “need to ease tensions” first.

Trade agreements will probably be signed with some countries and mutual tariffs will be lowered to ease tensions, but tariffs will remain and the global economy will slow down by the amount of the tariffs.
We can enjoy the risk-on for the time being, but we should be prepared for a recession after the end of this period.

The dollar’s short-term rebound will be limited.