The negotiations between the U.S. and Iran held over the weekend ended in a breakdown.

President Trump has immediately resumed making remarks that stoke tensions—such as the possibility of the U.S. Navy blocking the Strait of Hormuz—and the market is shifting toward risk aversion.
The ceasefire agreed upon by the U.S. and Iran is set to last until the 21st, and until then, both sides are likely to maintain a hardline stance to intimidate the other.

Crude oil opened with a gap up and gold with a gap down this morning, so for now, I plan to trade with the aim of filling these gaps.
During European and U.S. trading hours, we need to remain vigilant against President Trump’s unpredictable remarks. From London trading hours onward, the market could shift, and depending on his statements, we should be prepared to take short positions in gold and long positions in crude oil.

This week, attention will focus on the latest data regarding U.S. inflation trends and the employment situation.
The biggest focus is the U.S. “March Producer Price Index (PPI),” which will be released tomorrow.

This is a key indicator for assessing inflationary pressures at the upstream level.
If concerns about persistently high inflation resurface, it could trigger a surge in dollar buying.

With relatively few other major economic indicators this week, market cues will be limited, making it likely that capital will concentrate on results such as Thursday’s “Initial Jobless Claims.”
We must be vigilant for the risk of an initial market reaction that is larger than usual.