The United States and Iran have agreed on a memorandum of understanding. The formal signing is scheduled to take place in Switzerland on the 19th.
The markets are welcoming this development. Reactions such as falling crude oil prices, declining U.S. bond yields, and rising stock prices are intensifying rapidly. It appears there is hope that this time, the war will finally come to an end.

However, despite the remarkable movements in various markets, caution is needed regarding the sustainability of these trends in overseas markets going forward.
The content of the memorandum essentially involves extending the ceasefire agreement and reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
Regarding the fighting between Israel and Lebanon and Iran’s abandonment of its nuclear program, the positions and proposed paths forward of the U.S. and Iran remain at odds.
For now, the impression is that an agreement has been reached.

Uncertainties remain, such as a potential backlash against the market’s rapid price movements and social media comments from U.S. President Trump, who is known for his frequent shifts in stance.
Currently, the market is reacting to the memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran, with NY crude oil temporarily falling to around $80.

Last week, risk-off sentiment emerged following the resumption of U.S. attacks on Iran. This, combined with profit-taking after the previous rally reached its target, a deterioration in market supply and demand due to the SpaceX IPO, and gold failing to rebound and turning downward,
the market had turned sharply lower. However, the pessimistic conditions observed at the time of the economic data releases have since improved, and the market’s reaction to these indicators is likely to be limited, as they are now considered past events.
That said, if the data deviates significantly from expectations, a temporary reaction can be expected.

This week, the Bank of Japan’s policy meeting tomorrow is expected to signal an interest rate hike, and on Wednesday, new FOMC Chair Warsh will make her debut.
The G7 Summit is being held in Evian, France, through the 17th, and a wealth of political topics—such as the situation in the Middle East and Ukraine—are likely to emerge.