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Is a drop below 155 yen a sign of a market top?
NVIDIA posts record profits.
Revenue came in at $96.2 billion, exceeding market expectations of $92.4 billion; the gross profit margin was 75.0%, surpassing the market forecast of 74.8%; and the operating profit margin was 66.5%, slightly exceeding the market forecast of 66.1%.
Although the earnings report was strong, the stock price initially opened lower. However, since the results aren’t bad, the stock is likely to recover its losses and rise.
Deputy Governor Himino explicitly stated that the Bank of Japan will continue to adjust the degree of monetary easing going forward.
With the probability of a September rate hike already nearing 90 percent, it would not be wise for the BOJ to unsettle the market with particularly hawkish remarks; this is likely the most hawkish stance the BOJ can take at this point.
Amid this, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent called on Japan at the G20 summit to revise its reflationary policy.
The yen’s appreciation began following remarks that “Japan should stop its reflationary policy,” and on Thursday, the yen strengthened to around 155.30 yen.
Policy Board Member Takada also made remarks suggesting that the pace of interest rate hikes could be accelerated and that the magnitude of a hike could range from 0.5% to 0.75%.
These factors have combined to trigger a flood of selling in the dollar-yen pair.
As Council Member Takada noted, it is unlikely that a 0.5% rate hike will be implemented in September.
Furthermore, even if Mr. Bessent were to make such a request, it is unlikely that Prime Minister Takaichi would scrap the consumption tax cut on food items.
However, it can be said that international pressure is beginning to mount on Japan to halt its reflationary policy.
Mr. Bessent will likely keep a close eye on the situation until the yen’s depreciation stops.
A market reversal may have begun. Could a break below 155 yen confirm a top?
The momentum is clearly downward. For the USD/JPY pair, I plan to adopt a “sell on the rally” strategy whenever it pulls back.