Iran has rejected the ceasefire proposal presented by the United States through mediators such as Pakistan.
“It is illogical to engage in ceasefire negotiations with a country that has broken agreements in the first place,” they commented.

President Trump appears to be instructing those around him to bring the war with Iran to a swift end, but the means to do so remain unclear at this point.
The demands of the Iranian side and those of the U.S. side are far too divergent.

President Trump has scheduled a summit with China for mid-May.
By that time, the war with Iran is expected to be over. However, the likelihood of Iran agreeing to a ceasefire is close to zero.
If that is the case, there is a possibility that fighting could intensify in the short term.

The U.S. military attacked Qeshm Island, Iran’s hub for crude oil exports, and Iran retaliated by attacking countries in the Gulf.
While the U.S. likely intends to occupy Qeshm Island, the intensification of fighting caused WTI crude oil futures to exceed $100 at the start of the week.

Since the U.S. policy remains undecided, a contrarian strategy—buying when pessimism prevails and selling when optimism arises—has been working well so far.
This situation is likely to continue for the time being, but in the medium term, there is a possibility that oil prices will spike at some point, potentially plunging the global economy into recession.
In particular, emerging economies must be wary of a sudden economic shutdown resulting from their inability to secure crude oil.

Many countries are dissatisfied with the U.S.’s behavior this time.
The U.S. has violated international law itself, yet is still requesting cooperation in the war.
While the dollar is currently being bought due to interest rates, it appears likely that current levels will peak in the long term.