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How to view the EPA’s light-duty vehicle emissions regulations

The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has finalised GHG and emissions regulations for light-duty and medium-duty vehicles from 2027MY onwards.

The proposed regulations, published in April 2023, were criticised as “too strict!” but the final regulations provide some relief. The draft regulation was based on a scenario of 67% BEV share of new light duty vehicle sales in 2032MY, whereas the final rule envisages 56%.

More to the point, the BEV share for 2030MY is 44%, which means that the EPA has acknowledged that the Biden administration’s target of 50% BEVs in 2030MY may not be possible.

Nevertheless, the pace of GHG emission reductions averages 11% per year, which is still a tough regulation compared to the current regulation’s average of 8%. This is not a modification of the global warming measures themselves, which is to be expected. I think that’s why hybrid vehicles are suddenly getting a lot of attention.

In my personal opinion, I felt that the “all-round strategy” espoused by Dr Gill Pratt of the Toyota Research Institute (TRI) at last year’s Davos meeting was proven to be correct.