Last Friday’s U.S. employment report showed very strong numbers, causing interest rates to rise on expectations of a rate hike, which led to a stronger dollar and lower stock prices.
Nonfarm payrolls were expected to be 85,000, but the actual figure came in at 172,000.

This week will see a series of major events ahead of next week’s central bank meetings in the U.S. and Japan.

On Wednesday, the “U.S. May CPI”—the most important indicator for moving the dollar—will be released.
Thursday will be “Super Thursday,” featuring the “U.S. PPI,” the “ECB policy rate announcement,” and a press conference by President Lagarde.
Extreme caution is required regarding sharp overnight volatility.

In Japan, Governor Ueda effectively signaled an interest rate hike at the next Bank of Japan policy meeting, while Prime Minister Takaichi—who had previously opposed rate hikes—spoke out against yen weakness, laying the groundwork to prevent further depreciation.
The market views a rate hike of around 0.25% as insufficient to halt the yen’s decline.
While that is true, the government has refrained from interfering with the BOJ’s policy normalization, as U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent had hoped.
If that is the case, coordinated intervention between Japan and the U.S. is a possibility the next time intervention occurs.

If the dollar-yen rate continues to rise, the likelihood of intervention will increase, and the yen is unlikely to weaken significantly.
With many events scheduled this week, timing will likely be difficult, but the Ministry of Finance is surely weighing the timing for intervention.
While the medium- to long-term risk is further yen weakness, in the short term, the market may trend downward due to the possibility of intervention.