Last week, U.S. CPI and PPI figures came in higher than expected, causing the dollar-yen exchange rate to surge immediately after the release, while long-term U.S. interest rates also rose to 5.33%.
However, the pair failed to reach 159 yen. When the U.S. stock market saw a sharp decline in AI-related stocks—particularly CoreWeave—related stocks also plummeted, U.S. interest rates reversed course and fell, and the dollar plunged.

The EUR/USD pair is likely to remain in a downtrend, as there is little prospect of positive news emerging from the European economy.
However, with a significant number of short positions accumulated, a further rise is possible due to position adjustments.
Once short-covering subsides, euro weakness is likely to reignite due to political instability in Europe.

At the IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings in Bangkok, U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Warsh stated that the Fed would “keep an open mind” regarding interest rate decisions.
He offered almost no clues as to whether the Fed would raise rates at this month’s FOMC meeting.

Prior to Chairman Warsh’s remarks, the market had priced in a roughly 60% probability of “no rate hike” for October; however, following his comments, that probability has risen to over 80%.
Reflecting the expectation of no rate hike, the euro/dollar pair had been trading around 1.1210, but it rebounded to around 1.1245 and is currently trading around 1.1220.

Short positions in the euro/dollar pair had been building due to concerns over French government bonds, but U.S. long-term interest rates plummeted amid concerns over AI stocks triggered by CoreWeave, causing the euro/dollar pair to rebound.
U.S. stock prices rebounded slightly, but U.S. Treasury yields remain low.
CoreWeave’s CDS continues to be sold off.

The stock market is optimistic, but the bond market remains in crisis mode, and the Swiss franc is strong.
I would like to maintain positions based on a risk-off scenario. Should I maintain my short position in the dollar?