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Europe in a phase of interest rate cuts

At the ECB Council meeting, there was a reference to future rate cuts in the statement.

As the ECB starts to cut interest rates while the Fed is far away from cutting rates, the euro is expected to weaken due to the widening interest rate gap between the US and Europe Since 2023, the euro-dollar has been in a range of around 1.05-1.12; now that it has clearly fallen below 1.07, it is likely to enter a downtrend in the future.

The yen’s weakening is likely to be seen in the future, and the yen selling positions on the IMM currency futures market increased again last week, as the yen broke through 152 yen, which combined with dollar buying from barrier option triggers and long entry by players using technical stop loss orders, led to the dollar-yen’s weakening. The dollar may blow up due to a combination of dollar buying from barrier option triggers and long entry players using technical stop-loss orders.

The USD/JPY is now firmly at 153 yen. No intervention from the authorities has been seen yet, although they may be waiting for the right moment. The US-Japan summit is also over. If there is no intervention anywhere this week, the dollar-yen could rise to higher levels.