文字のサイズ
- 小
- 中
- 大
Currency Intervention Again
Currency intervention took place over three days: last Thursday, Friday, and today, the start of the week.
There was also a rate check by the U.S.
This time, the coordination between the Japanese and U.S. administrations was particularly notable.
On Thursday, Prime Minister Takaichi announced a consumption tax cut on food. While this would normally fuel concerns about fiscal health—and thus serve as a catalyst for buying the dollar against the yen—the yen actually strengthened.
On Friday, a second round of intervention took place following the Bank of Japan’s policy meeting, at which Governor Ueda signaled the most hawkish shift possible under his leadership.
Today, as if timed to coincide with the press conference following the Cabinet meeting, there was an intervention lasting about 30 minutes.
This is likely to fuel speculation about an early interest rate hike in Japan.
The U.S. had declared it would launch a large-scale attack on Iran but called it off; as a result, crude oil prices fell, U.S. interest rates declined, and the dollar is trading slightly weaker.
U.S. media reports that the reason for calling off the attack on Iran was concern over running out of ammunition.
If they run out of ammunition, they cannot attack Iran.
If that is the case, it amounts to a victory for Iran.
It appears the trend is toward tacit acceptance of Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz and its nuclear development.
Crude oil prices will stabilize somewhat, but there is a possibility that Iran will resort to provocations.
Since the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is also closed, it is unlikely that crude oil prices will plummet.
However, for now, the fundamentals point to a weak yen.
For the trend to reverse, the exchange rate will need to shift a bit further.