Business strategy reports, business matching and M&A in Japan

文字のサイズ

BOJ raises rates by 0.25% but yen weakens

The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 0.25% last Friday.
However, it did not change its outlook regarding the neutral interest rate, and the path for the next rate hike was not clear, so the yen is weakening.
Will the yen continue to weaken, or will there be some point where the yen returns all at once due to currency intervention, etc.?

The only thing that scares me is currency intervention.
There was also a statement from Minister of Economy and Finance Mr. Jouchi, but he did not seem to have any plans regarding intervention.

The ECB has not made any policy changes, but there will be no change in monetary policy for the time being, and an interest rate hike awaits in the distant future.
In that case, it is positive for the euro as the U.S. is in a rate cutting phase.

The British central bank cut rates by 0.25%.
We are still waiting for the press conference by Governor Bailey to see if the 0.25% rate cut will be enough to bring an end to the trend.

U.S. CPI was 3.1% y/y, while core CPI was 3.0% y/y.
If the figures are higher than market expectations, the reaction will be to buy the dollar; if they are lower, the reaction will be to sell the dollar.

It has become really difficult to predict the direction of the dollar based on a single economic indicator.
Rather than the impact of the numbers, it is likely to be influenced by pre-Christmas position adjustments.

The dollar has already rallied quite a bit, but we should remain cautiously long.