In the Outlook Report released at the same time as the BOJ policy meeting, the BOJ revised downward its growth and inflation forecasts. The BOJ stated that “uncertainty is greater than before” and that “the pace of growth will slow as overseas economies decelerate due to the impact of trade policies of various countries, which will put downward pressure on domestic corporate earnings and other factors.
In response, the yen weakened in the foreign exchange market, rapidly rising from around ¥143 to the upper ¥144 level.

The U.S. employment report showed headline job gains of 177,000, exceeding market expectations of 130,000. However, the February figure was revised downward by -15,000 and March by -43,000, so taking these points into account, the figure was almost in line with market expectations.
The unemployment rate was 4.2% (forecast 4.2%), average hourly earnings were +0.2 month-on-month (forecast +0.3) and +3.8% year-on-year (forecast +3.9%), and the labor participation rate was 62.6 (62.5 last month). Given the recent poor employment numbers (JOLTS, ADP jobs report, and initial jobless claims), the numbers may be interpreted as stronger than expected. 144 yen is support, and short-term forces may be aiming for 148 yen, but there may not be that much upside momentum. However, there may not be that much upside momentum.

The biggest bullish factor for the dollar/yen is that market positions are leaning toward shorting the dollar/yen. However, considering that the U.S. economy is softening, the effects of tariffs are about to take effect, etc., we would like to go short on USD/JPY at some point.