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Trump Trade Reversal

Trump returns to the presidency, and yet the Republicans control both the House and Senate. As if to celebrate Trump’s victory, interest rates are rising, the stock market is rising, and the dollar is rising.
The conditions are now in place for Trump’s economic policies, which involve massive spending.

Long-term U.S. interest rates continued to rise from around 3.6% in mid-September to 4.45% on the day of the presidential election. 0.85% interest rate increase is quite large.
With the election of Trump, “buy on rumor, sell on fact” fact selling began to move the market.

The dollar was also up ¥15 considering the low around ¥139.58. Since many players are concerned about rising U.S. interest rates and believe that further dollar/yen appreciation is inevitable, it may not be surprising to see a large-scale adjustment.
It was a bit less than after the 2016 presidential election, but the Trump trade will not last forever, so calm profit-taking selling is ahead.

Trump will not take office until next January. Until then, Democratic politics will continue in the White House with no real master in office.
Chairman Powell’s speech will also be closely watched, but if Trump takes office, Chairman Powell may be removed.

As market participants, it will be difficult to determine how seriously to take Chairman Powell’s talk. The market may adjust in a dizzying manner until the second half of January when the Trump administration takes office.