Last Thursday, the dollar was sold off on concerns about the U.S. economy and a rate cut by the FOMC after the New Unemployment Insurance Claims number worsened. However, it did not break below 147.00 yen and rebounded toward 148.00 yen when Europe entered the market.
The yen strengthened on the Bloomberg report that the BOJ would not rule out a rate hike even in the face of political turmoil, but as a result, the “go-go” trend was perceived as a continuation of the range market.
The annual revision of the U.S. employment report showed a larger-than-expected downward revision of 911,000, but the dollar still rebounded.

The U.S. PPI was a surprise with an unexpectedly low number, but the dollar still did not fall.
The CPI was higher due to tariffs, as a low PPI does not mean that the CPI is also low.

More than that, Charlie Kirk’s shooting shocked Trump’s supporters. The U.S. tends to unite at times like this, which sometimes leads to a stronger dollar.
Also, Russia’s violation of Polish airspace is expected to be handled by NATO, which could be negative for the euro if the situation worsens.
The situation is fluid and should be judged comprehensively.

Toyo Gyoten said in Reuters, “Interest rates too low, inflation worries. The BOJ is not expected to change policy at this month’s meeting. Still concerned about Trump tariffs.
Under these circumstances, even if the U.S. cuts rates, the downside potential for the dollar may be limited.

The narrow range of the dollar-yen may be a range break to the upside.