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On Guard Against a Surprise Intervention?

Last week, Reuters reported that future intervention could come as a “surprise.”
Did that report affect the algorithms? Or did intervention actually take place? We don’t know for sure, but the dollar-yen rate instantly plummeted below 161 yen.

The jobs report wasn’t particularly strong, and the dollar-yen pair fell further to 160.64 yen; then, just a short while ago, shortly after 3:30 p.m., it dipped below 160.50 yen.
There is speculation circulating in the market that large-scale profit-taking is occurring due to concerns about a surprise intervention by authorities.

It’s unclear how effective this will be, but if oil prices continue to fall and the job market is no longer as robust as it once was, the strong dollar trend might begin to shift.
However, the week began with the dollar strengthening on Monday, and the USD/JPY pair quickly recovered to 162 yen.

Although the market had been stuck in a range-bound pattern—with strong underlying momentum but no active buyers at higher levels due to intense concerns about intervention—
there has been little comment from the government despite the yen hitting a 39-year high.

The Basic Policy set a target of nominal growth exceeding 3%, but to achieve this, a certain level of inflation is necessary rather than suppressing it.
To fulfill this pledge, monetary easing must continue to generate inflation.

Now that pressure has begun to mount on the Bank of Japan to continue monetary easing, a weaker yen will likely have to be accepted.
I anticipate further yen weakness.