North America is a presidential election year
The year 2024 has begun. Looking at the North American automotive industry, 2024 is shaping up to be a year with the potential to be a major turning point.
The US presidential election will take place in November. President Biden, a Democrat seeking re-election, and the Republican candidate will fight. The Democrats, who won the last presidential election, have significantly strengthened environmental regulations and made measures to promote BEVs one of their key policies since the change of government in January 2021. In response, investment in BEVs by automobile-related industries has increased dramatically.
If, hypothetically, the Republicans win the presidential election in November, we see the possibility of a major shift in the current system, depending on the president’s policies. During the previous Trump administration, the axis of policy was deregulation, and while the Democrats are pushing for a shift from ICEs to BEVs, the Republicans can be expected to revisit various preferential policies for BEVs.
As of January 2024, the Republican candidate has not yet been decided, but it is quite possible that former President Trump will be the nominee, and the possibility of another significant policy shift should be kept in mind.
In June, before the US presidential elections, there will also be Mexican presidential elections. The president’s term of office is six years and re-election is not permitted, so incumbents cannot run for office. Claudia Sheinbaum, a former mayor of Mexico, is the candidate from the ruling party MORENA to succeed President Lopez Obrador. Against her, the opposition coalition (PAN/PRI/PRD) has selected Senator Xochitl Galvez as its official candidate. Both leading candidates are women, and the election of Mexico’s first female president is being tipped as a possibility.
The automotive industry (Mexico) needs to pay attention to how environmental policies, which are attracting global attention, are positioned, for example. The key points are likely to be whether the current administration will embark on initiatives to promote BEVs, which it has not focused on, and measures to support industry, including production.
Government policy will depend on the outcome of the US and Mexican presidential elections. There are many points that require attention, such as the promises made by each candidate in the presidential elections, in order for companies to formulate medium- and long-term strategies, including environmental regulations, measures to popularise BEVs and whether or not subsidies will be provided to the automobile industry.