New environmental regulations introduced by the US government, with approximately 70% of new car sales to be EVs by 2032 MY.
The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced new proposed emission standards for 2027-2032MY (the standards up to 2026MY have already been finalised) in April 2023. If the standards are met, according to calculations, approximately 70% of new vehicle sales are expected to be EVs (BEV/PHEV/FCEV) as of 2032MY. However, the proposed regulation is still in the process of seeking opinions, and the figures may be revised before the final decision is made.
In 2022, the US EV share (of the total market including ICEs) is only 6.7%, and when OEMs’ BEV share targets as of 2030 are stacked up, the total is still below 50%, so a rapid shift to BEVs will be essential for the market to change as proposed by the EPA. Although some PHEVs are expected to be included, it is reasonable to assume that the electric vehicle market will basically shift to mainly BEV products.
The proposed regulations will reduce CO2 emissions from 186 g/mile in 2026 MY (revised figure) to 102 g/mile in 2030 MY and 82 g/mile in 2032 MY. 2032 MY will require a 56% reduction compared to 2026 MY, a figure that OEMs will find more difficult than expected. This is a more difficult figure for OEMs to achieve than expected.
On the other hand, although the background, situation and circumstances are different, one of the characteristics of the situation is that Europe is effectively banning the sale of ICEs (except for some synthetic fuels, etc.) and trying to convert the market to ZEVs, while the US is assuming that a certain amount of ICEs will remain in the new vehicle market. Nevertheless, as the regulatory level cannot be achieved without increasing the ratio of BEVs, OEMs are expected to further promote their BEV shift strategy.
In addition to trends related to electric vehicles, which can be described as a next-generation industry, this report analyses the automobile and parts industries, mainly in Europe and the US, and the business trends/strategies of various manufacturers, ranging from internal combustion engine vehicles, which form the core of the conventional automobile industry. In addition to vehicle sales and production in some 90 countries and monthly sales figures for electric vehicles in 43 countries, the report also includes a number of special reports, including a special feature on electric vehicles and a ranking of global parts suppliers’ sales.